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Zheng cotton is ready to go. Is it possible to usher in an upward trend in 2018?

Date: 2018-06-11
Times of browsing: 21

Compared with the bottom rebound in 2016, the trend of domestic cotton in 2017 was relatively smooth, and the overall gravity center moved upward, showing a trend of interval shocks. The main shock interval was maintained at 15000-16000 yuan / ton, and with the large number of new cotton listed, the fluctuation range of zhengmian main force gradually converged in the fourth quarter. Throughout the year, the main factors affecting the trend of domestic Zheng cotton are a large increase in global cotton output, strong American cotton export, domestic cotton reserve policy and a huge supply and demand gap. Under the combined action of these factors, the trend of the domestic price range of domestic cotton has been created.

On the spot side, cotton prices are running smoothly, and yarn and cloth are seasonally evident. The 3128B cotton price index, which represents the domestic cotton price, shows a high and stable trend throughout the year. The operating range is 15769 - 16076 yuan / ton, and the fluctuation is within 300 yuan / ton. The price trend of the downstream yarn and grey fabric has a distinct seasonal trend: at the beginning of the year, the price of yarn and grey fabric went up high by the downstream consumption; the price fell from April to August, mainly affected by the decline of the consumption season and the price of raw materials; the price of the beginning of September has been a high return. After the 9 and October consumption season, the raw materials are still in the early stage. The reserve cotton has been patted, but the downstream consumption is weak and the price is falling.

 The supply and demand of the main cotton producing countries

1, except for China, the world's cotton output and ending inventory are high.

According to the latest US farmers' report, global cotton output in 2017/2018 was estimated to be 20 million 673 thousand tons in addition to China in addition to China, which has increased by 2 million 427 thousand tons in the previous year, a increase of 13.3%, slightly higher than last year, and the highest since the year 2011/2012. In addition to China, global cotton output is estimated to be 17 million 544 thousand tons, which continues to increase slightly by a small increase of 4.3%, which is also the highest in the year, but its growth rate is far below the rate of increase in production. Finally, at the end of this year, global cotton ending inventory was 10 million 521 thousand tonnes, except China, which increased by 23.2% over the previous year, the highest in recent years. In addition to China, the end of the world cotton inventory consumption ratio reached 60%, an increase of 9.2 percentage points over the previous year, the highest level in recent years.

2. The output of cotton in the United States has reached a new high in 11 years

Thanks to the huge increase in US cotton planting area this year, the output of US cotton has increased considerably. According to the latest American farmers' report, the annual output of American cotton was estimated to be 4 million 667 thousand and 500 tons in this year, a new high of nearly 11 years; a significant increase of 929 thousand and 600 tons in the last year, an increase of 24.87%, only after the increase of last year and the 2004/2005 year. The consumption was estimated to be 729 thousand and 300 tons, with an increase of 21 thousand and 800 tons, an increase of 3.08%, an estimated export volume of 3 million 222 thousand tons, and a slight decrease of 26 thousand and 100 tons in the ring, and a substantial increase of 664 thousand tons to 1 million 262 thousand and 300 tons at the end of the period, a new high since the 2009/2010 year.

3. The production of cotton in India has increased greatly and the export volume is slightly reduced.

After two consecutive years of increasing production, India's cotton output in this year has reached a new high in history, a significant increase of 9.26% compared with the previous year, mainly due to the increase in planting area. India's domestic consumption has been stable over the past four years, while export volume has been slightly reduced, especially in the past two years. In the end, India's cotton consumption reached 45.37% at the end of this year, second only to 2014/2015.

4, China: the huge gap in the year still exists

In December, the US agriculture report showed that China's cotton output forecast increased from 490 thousand tons to 5 million 442 thousand and 500 tons in the last year, up 9.89%, and the consumption forecast was 8 million 490 thousand tons for third consecutive years, and the supply and demand gap in the year was narrowing but still up to 3 million 50 thousand tons. After two years of continuous inventory, the domestic cotton final inventory forecast was effectively reduced by 1 million 900 thousand tons to 8 million 636 thousand tons at the end of the year, nearly 41% lower than the peak in 2014/2015. Ending inventory consumption fell by 27.32 percentage points to 101.59%, which is far higher than the end of the world cotton inventory consumption ratio. However, a large proportion of China's cotton stock accounts for 6 of which can not be freely circulated in the national treasury.

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