Recently, Zheng's cotton rose again, the main contract CF1809 high to 16285 yuan / ton, up to 665 yuan / ton, the highest price of CF1901 contract to 17050 yuan / ton, increase over 700 yuan / ton, holding and trading volume significantly magnified. 1905, the contract rose the largest, up 810 points, and its disk price reached 17445 yuan / ton forward contract, which was more popular. Market forecast, Zheng cotton will again lead the spot price. Zheng cotton space war is so fierce, what is going on in the market?
The last two days, in the circle of friends can see, cotton enterprises, traders have expressed a suspension of foreign quotations; at the same time, many textile enterprises also said that because of the increase in cotton prices, the yarn no longer accept prepayments. It is understood that in May 15th, the length of 28cm, breaking strength of 27CN/tex Xinjiang cotton price of 16100 yuan / ton (gross weight settlement), white cotton 4 grade real estate cotton price 15000 yuan / ton. After May 16th, spot prices will usher in a new wave of rising prices.
The contradiction between supply and demand rapidly fermented in a short period of time, directing the drama of today's trading. On the one hand, since the spring sowing, Xinjiang has suffered a lot of rain and snow, storm, dust storm and cooling and other weather, some areas of new cotton growth damaged, the disaster situation is not optimistic, especially in May, 14 day and night, May 15th storm raids will aggravate the disaster situation. It is not difficult to see from the trend of futures prices that the recent two severe disaster weather in Bazhou cotton area in southern Xinjiang caused the continuous fermentation of the market for the continued decline of cotton planting area throughout the country. The industry expects to increase the cost of replanting again, and the concern and concern of the cotton market for this year's cotton production are intensifying.
On the other hand, La Nina disaster risk increased during the year. According to the national defense general, the La Nina phenomenon has been formed and gradually increased. According to historical data, La Nina affects the overall meteorological annual deviation, and the extreme weather disasters may occur frequently in the flood season, including tornado, hail and heavy rain in the southeast cotton area of the United States in April, and the floods in some areas. This has further exacerbated market concerns.
In addition, the current market support is based on the following points:
1, from the downstream demand point of view, the demand for cotton yarn is better in the near future, profit is rising, the price of cotton is strong, the price of high quality cotton is scarce and the price is strong. -500 yuan / ton, the factory receives the order normally, the shipment is smooth. At present, the rhythm of replenishment of raw material inventory in cotton spinning enterprises is accelerating step by step, which is obviously favorable for the recent cotton market.
2, the rapid decline in the stock of the state storage of cotton also caused widespread concern. In 2016, the state storage cotton pulley was 2 million 660 thousand tons, and the 2017 state stored cotton was 3 million 220 thousand tons. The stock of the state storage was about 5 million 250 thousand tons this year. Due to the large demand for the state storage cotton price advantage, it is expected that the reserves will be more than 2 million tons in the year. Down to about 3 million tons, entering the low stock interval, the policy of reserve cotton in the next year may be changed from pure storage to wheel storage, and the domestic production and marketing gap will be supplemented by the expansion of imports. The rapid decline of state reserve inventory has become another key factor to support cotton price rise.
For Zheng cotton's performance, there are different voices in the market, but the above factors are affecting the current futures market. Then, in the face of the rise of futures, whether the cotton spot is going up or how much will it increase? Xiaobian thinks that the short term will have obvious thrust to the spot market. However, whether the rise or rising enthusiasm will be weaker than the futures market, in addition, the U. S. cotton is still located at the 80 cent position in the crossbar, the follow-up domestic cotton planting area, inventory consumption is still the root of supply and demand. In the short term, Zheng cotton is still overdue to high risk, but Zheng cotton broke through 17000 points in one stroke, indeed it has the standard. Pole meaning.
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