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Why "two days of ice fire" appeared in the domestic and foreign cotton market

Date: 2018-06-11
Times of browsing: 27

In December 2017, the domestic and foreign cotton market is "two days of ice fire", the main force of the United States cotton in March contracts in the 70 cents / pound integer gate, the whole way, the first high point of 80 cents / pound frontline. The main force of Zheng cotton fell from the 15500 yuan / ton line, breaking down the fifth barrier, and the recent narrow oscillation was in a dilemma.

Beautiful cotton export data

According to statistics, as of December 28, 2017, the United States has signed up to 2 million 552 thousand tons of 2017/2018 cotton for export, and has signed up to 78% of the annual export volume, which is higher than the five year average of 11%, up from 17% last year. This is an important reason for the sustained rebound of American cotton prices. Although the export sales of American cotton were worse in the last two weeks, there was not more than half of this year, and the U. S. cotton export signed a big half, especially with the coming of the peak sales season, and the overall sales data were strong. At the same time, the loosening of China's cotton quota policy will also bring sustained benefits to US cotton exports, so the US cotton price is limited. Recently, some domestic market participants believe that a large part of the rise of US cotton is attributed to the non price position. Unfixed On-Call Sales, which is part of a commercial position, can be understood as a hedging position based on a basis transaction. The participants are the cotton merchants, and the call directives are usually the factories (or other buyers). In principle, the cotton merchants (the sellers) finish the hedging task and obtain the base difference income after the buyer sends the point price instructions. Of course, there may be differences in the actual situation. There may be delayed opening or partial opening. The US cotton export contract data is strong, and the situation of the closing of the futures market is naturally increasing.

Domestic spot sales are slow

At present, it should be the peak season for textile enterprises to replenishment, but we can see that its replenishment efforts are weak. A pre national reserve stock is much more stocked, and new cotton is listed on the stock market and resources are abundant. The two is the start of the new year's reserve cotton rotation in March. For the high cotton prices, the downstream is not "cold". Xinjiang standard machine picked cotton prices also slipped from the previous 15500 yuan / ton to 15000 yuan / ton line. It is also a problem whether the ginning factory will sell at a loss or at a fair price when the spot price is located near the cost of the cotton mill. It is estimated that cotton consumption will be 8 million 500 thousand tons this year, with an average monthly demand of 700 thousand tons, and the price of yarn will be lower than that of foreign yarn. As time goes on, as long as the cotton mill stands up to pressure, the market will usher in the dawn. In the actual production of textile enterprises, the reserve cotton must be used with a certain proportion of new cotton, so the replenishment bank is late, but it will eventually be fulfilled.

The contraction of the price difference between the internal and external cotton to the normal low level

As of January 8th, the number of Zheng cotton warehouse receipts was 4086, forecast 1143, and the peak period of last year 5288, compared with the forecast of 1369, though less than 1428, but the volume of delivery is still relatively large. A large number of warehouse receipts are generated by the Xinjiang warehouse registration convenience factors, but more cotton production, the spot sales are not smooth, making a large number of resources into the futures market. How to solve the warehouse receipt problem should be the focus of the market. The difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices has dropped rapidly from the high level in recent years, from the 3000 yuan / ton peak to 1000 yuan / ton. The difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices is 1500 - 2000 yuan / ton, which is generally recognized by the domestic market. Excessive or low price will lead to fierce competition in the cotton yarn market. At present, the domestic and foreign cotton price difference is beneficial to the recovery of domestic textile competitiveness. If the low price difference is maintained for a long time, and the late domestic will have a cheaper reserve of cotton, which will help to boost the domestic cotton consumption and increase the price of cotton. From the basic point of view, the strong and weak cotton situation of the United States can still be maintained. From a statistical point of view, the price difference between the two is down to the low level, and the cross market arbitrage operation in the market can be considered.

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